Why does Wetherby make horses run like a witch’s cat?

1st June 2026

Start £117.99 (Betdaq £99.30/Matchbook £18.69)

P&L £2.95 (Betdaq -£1.78/Matchbook £4.73)

End £120.95 (Betdaq £97.52/Matchbook £23.42)

Total P&L £2.95 (£999,997 remaining)

Daily Notes – bit of a nothing day really. Had a lovely lay at Presque Isle Downs late on, where I love laying big striding horses. But aside from that was trying to get this site up and running…and it’s not as intuitive as I’d hoped.

2nd June 2026

Start £120.95 (Betdaq £99.30/Matchbook £18.69)

P&L £13.17 (Betdaq £9.87/Matchbook £3.30)

End £134.12 (Betdaq £107.39/Matchbook £26.72)

Total P&L £16.12 (£999,984 remaining)

Daily Notes – felt antsy. Now that I’ve started this blog am feeling a bit like I have to make something happen. Which is dumb, of course, as the best policy is to sit on one’s hands and let the situations present themselves. I don’t mind losing but I do mind making mental mistakes.

3rd June 2026

Start £134.12 (Betdaq £107.39/Matchbook £26.72)

P&L £52.62 (Betdaq £33.63/Matchbook £18.99)

End £186.74 (Betdaq £141.02/Matchbook £45.72)

Total P&L £68.74 (£999,931 remaining)

Daily Notes – am definitely being too careful. Though as they say in the WSOP Main Event, ‘You can’t win the tournament on the first day, but you can lose it’. Woulda normally had The Ginger Kid (20/1) in the win and Cilician (25/1) in the place in the 2.48 at Nottingham. In Maidens (races for horses that are yet to win a race) with little to no form I like a mixture of youth (i.e. when was the horse born relative to the others), experience and sales price. The Ginger Kid cost over £100k and went off short for his first race so clearly has some level of talent, while Cilician was the second youngest in the field. And ordinarily I would have had Bull Shark (3 runs against debutants, has a decent physique and looks like he wanted 7f) to be top 2 at the Curragh. Though at least I laid the favourite (Giant Sequoia) in the latter. It’ll come.

4th June 2026

Start £186.74 (Betdaq £141.02/Matchbook £45.72)

P&L £127.25 (Betdaq £78.91/Matchbook £48.34)

End £314.00 (Betdaq £219.93/Matchbook £94.07)

Total P&L £195.99 (£999,804 remaining)

Daily Notes – a lovely ex-season handicap spot at Nottingham dogs (Trap 3 Greybie @ 9.5 to win, 4.3 to place) kick-started things nicely today. For some reason the entire greyhound industry seems to think that a bitch takes 16 weeks to recover from season. But it’s not, it’s 12. Maybe they use 12 because that’s when their bloods come right again or something. But simply looking at the data, it’s definitely 12 weeks. If the industry wants to keep making that mistake that’s fine by me.

Wetherby was fascinating. In the 2.42 I had Heffernan Kingdom @ 11.5 win and 3.1 place that came 3rd after hitting the front. Also had 125/1 chance Mardy Bum (love that name!) at 28.0 to place in the top 3 in the same race; it finished 4th (lol, of course). Nice shape of bet, that. But the thing that stuck out was how many horses seemed to run almost a little sideways when up on the lead in the straight before being corrected by their jockeys. Watch Heffernan Kingdom. Also watch Wateera in the 2.12. Then Black Orchid in the 3.12. It’s pretty much the exact same movement and I’ve never noticed it before. My friend Saskia (who may or may not be a bona fide witch) used to have a cat (familiar?) that moved the same. At times it used to arch its back, make the shape of a croissant and skitter sideways. Bloody weirdo.

Then at Ffos Las there was 3 cracking bets in the 6.50 but it was a bit of a balls up as I only got one of them off. I missed my original bet, which was laying the paper favourite Persian Land at as low as 2.4, then compounded it by missing the actual favourite, Galipi, which was backed massively and went off at an extraordinary 2.29 (wtf?! Blind lay, that). But thankfully I backed the 7/2 winner Real Trouble (totally stole the value by getting on at 4.0).

For some reason Ffos Las is one of the hardest tracks to debut at in the world, so 2.29 is a fairly crazy price when up against fellow debutants, let alone horses with experience, as was the case today. To me a horse backs itself if it costs £105k, ran a Topspeed (speed figures used by the Racing Post) of 54 in its only race and it’s up against a £32k horse that’s got a weight penalty for winning in a slow Topspeed of 18 in its only race. Obviously there are other considerations like physique, but they were on our side in this instance. Mathematically speaking, the decision is more or less taken out of your hands and price becomes the only consideration. If it’s very short then maybe not, but at 7/2 (4.5 or more on the exchange) then you simply have to. As the great G-Dog used to say, ‘Can’t be bothered not to’.

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